Spiegel ba Baruunii setguul zui.

Sayahan Spiegel deer manai hairt shar udirdagchiin tuhai garjee. Mongoliin sonin deer garsan bolshuud itgehed hetsuu. Harin baruunii setguul zuin standard mon Spiegel iin ner toriig meddeg hun bol yamar ch baisan neleen ortoi yum gedgiig oilgono. Yor ni baruund yalanguya USA d bol reporting bolon opinion hoyoroo zaaval yalgadag. Yamar ner tortoi medium bsan ch opinion bol neg taliig barisan ch yumuu, ul undes muutai yum garsan bhad gaihahad yumgui. Harin reporting bol Spiegel, Harper's, New York Times, Financial Times ene ter bol tun ondor shalguuraar handaj boditoi, neutral, barimttai baihiig hicheedeg. Ter Spiegel deer garsan yum bol reporting bololtoi.

Mongold tiim hemjeenii setguul zuin standard odoogoor baihgui. Ter ni setguulchideesee gadan sanhuu, unshigchiin huleelt zergees iluu shaltgaaldag bizdee. Gehdee Mongold bas professional class esvel middle class geheer baruunii mayagiin bolovsroltoi, bolomjiin orlogotoidavharga togtoj ehleed baigaa yum shig sanagdsan. Ene davhargiig bi bol
1. Sariin orlogo: $1000 aas deesh
2. Gadaad hel: English, German, Japanese iin ali negtei
3. Bolovsrol: Master degree esvel baruund college duurgesen.
4. Occupation: tomoohon company d manager iin tovshingiin ajil esvel huviin businesstei.

gej todorhoiloh yum bna. Iim davharga Mongold dor hayaj 1000 hun orchim baigaa bolovuu gej bna.

Tegeheer iim humuust zoriulsan general-interest serguul gargaval bas zah zeel baih yum shig. Model ni gevel New Yorker, Harper's, Newsweek, Spiegel, Economist mon Business Week. Gehdee edniig sohoroor duuriaval Mongol hund sonirholgui baih bolovuu. Analys hiisen, ondor tovshingiin niitleluudiig business, finance, investment, politics, economy, art, entertainment mon sport gesen chigleleer niitleh. Ugaasaa unshigchiin too tsoohon baih tul iim yum bich ene ter gesen political pressure bag abaih bolovuu. Tegeheer boditoi bichih bolomjtoi.

Neg asuudal ni staff iigaa tsalinjuulah l hetsuu baih. Harin baingiin journalist, editor avahgui, sonirholtoi humuus ni haaya bichdeg baival ter asuudliig shiideh bolomjtoi baih. 1-2 support staff baihad l hevleed baih bolno.Hervee iim setguul garval Mongol iin niigemd sain noloo uzuulj boloh bolovuu gej bodno. Ashig bol neg ih olohgui bh. Gehdee brand aa togtooj chadval 2-3 jiliin daraanaas ashig orj ireh buren bolomjtoi. Unshigchid ni haritsangui orlogo ondortoi baih tul advertizer uud sonirhoh uchraas.

Iim yum bodoj baigaa zaluuchuud ali hediin baigaa gedegt moriitsohod ch belen. 1-2 jiliin dotor iim setguul barag l bii bolno gej bodoj bna. We'll see.

Spiegel ba Baruunii setguul zui.

Sayahan Spiegel deer manai hairt shar udirdagchiin tuhai garjee. Mongoliin sonin deer garsan bol
shuud itgehed hetsuu. Harin baruunii setguul zuin standard mon Spiegel iin ner toriig meddeg hun bol yamar ch baisan neleen ortoi yum gedgiig oilgono. Yor ni baruund yalanguya USA d bol reporting bolon opinion hoyoroo zaaval yalgadag. Yamar ner tortoi medium bsan ch opinion bol neg taliig barisan ch yumuu, ul undes muutai yum garsan bhad gaihahad yumgui. Harin reporting bol Spiegel, Harper's, New York Times, Financial Times ene ter bol tun ondor shalguuraar handaj boditoi, neutral, barimttai baihiig hicheedeg. Ter Spiegel deer garsan yum bol reporting bololtoi.

Mongold tiim hemjeenii setguul zuin standard odoogoor baihgui. Ter ni setguulchideesee gadan sanhuu, unshigchiin huleelt zergees iluu shaltgaaldag bizdee. Gehdee Mongold bas professional class esvel middle class geheer baruunii mayagiin bolovsroltoi, bolomjiin orlogotoidavharga togtoj ehleed baigaa yum shig sanagdsan. Ene davhargiig bi bol

1. Sariin orlogo: $1000 aas deesh
2. Gadaad hel: English, German, Japanese iin ali negtei
3. Bolovsrol: Master degree esvel baruund college duurgesen.
4. Occupation: tomoohon company d manager iin tovshingiin ajil esvel huviin businesstei.

gej todorhoiloh yum bna. Iim davharga Mongold dor hayaj 1000 hun orchim baigaa bolovuu gej bna. Tegeheer iim humuust zoriulsan general-interest serguul gargaval bas zah zeel baih yum shig. Model ni gevel New Yorker, Harper's, Newsweek, Spiegel, Economist mon Business Week. Gehdee edniig sohoroor duuriaval Mongol hund sonirholgui baih bolovuu. Analys hiisen, ondor tovshingiin niitleluudiig business, finance, investment, politics, economy, art, entertainment mon sport gesen chigleleer niitleh. Ugaasaa unshigchiin too tsoohon baih tul iim yum bich ene ter gesen political pressure bag abaih bolovuu. Tegeheer boditoi bichih bolomjtoi.

Neg asuudal ni staff iigaa tsalinjuulah l hetsuu baih. Harin baingiin journalist, editor avahgui, sonirholtoi humuus ni haaya bichdeg baival ter asuudliig shiideh bolomjtoi baih. 1-2 support staff baihad l hevleed baih bolno.

Hervee iim setguul garval Mongol iin niigemd sain noloo uzuulj boloh bolovuu gej bodno. Ashig bol neg ih olohgui bh. Gehdee brand aa togtooj chadval 2-3 jiliin daraanaas ashig orj ireh buren bolomjtoi. Unshigchid ni haritsangui orlogo ondortoi baih tul advertizer uud sonirhoh uchraas.

Iim yum bodoj baigaa zaluuchuud ali hediin baigaa gedegt moriitsohod ch belen. 1-2 jiliin dotor iim setguul barag l bii bolno gej bodoj bna. We'll see.

Find x!! And other math adventures.

Ulaanbaatariin Utaa

Bi uul ni PhD ee avchihaad Mongoldoo hariya gej bodoj bsan yum. Getel Ulaanbaatariin utaan hoshgiin tuhai duulaad
ergelzej ehellee. Bohir zavaan orchin, shoroo toos, buduuleg arinshin, avilgal yalzral, yaduural ni bol yaahve ugaasaa tengerees buuj ireegui Mongold osoj torson bolohoor tevcheed amidarna gej bodoj bsan. Harin utaand ugaartuulj jiliin hagasiig ongoroono gedeg bol barah davaa bish baih. Minii harih harihgui ch yaah ve, utaand ugaartuulan baij amidraad, ter talaar yu ch hiihgui tor zasgiig tevcheed songood baigaa ard tumen maani l hoorhiiloltoi yumdaaa. Yaduural, avilgal baigaad bol neg ih gaihahgui. Bayachuud yaduuchuudaa munhruulaad, tarhiig ni ugaagaad songogdood, zasaglaad baidag yumaa gej bodyo. Bayan yaduugui Mongold l baival bugdiig ni utaj baigaa utaanii talaar bayachuud, darga nar yum hiideggui ni harin gaihaltai. Medeej elituud maani neg negeer ni avaad uzvel uhaantai, daichin, ajil heregch, humuus baih l daa. Getel iim oorsdiinh huvid amin chuhal asuudal deer ch gesen elituud ni negdeed, effective arga hemjee avhch chadahgui ni Mongol gelgtui ihenh developing (euphimism for undeveloped, poor) ulsuudiin emgenel yumdaa.

Hindsight aar tsetserhehej baigaa yum shig hund sonsogdoh baih l daa. Gehdee mulguu nadad ch 2-3 jiliin omnooos l utaanii asuudal hundrene gedeg ni haragdaad bsan. Agaariin bohirdoliin hemjeeg time series graphic (tolgoindoo zursan ch bolno) zuraad trend iig ni harahad hangalttai baiv. Mongoliin erdemten merged maani mergen oyundaa tungaj baigaa baih gej naidaad, bi hoshuu nemeh hereggui biz dee gej bodoj baiv. Getel yor ni tiim shinjgui.
Hun bolgon l hoshuu nemehgui bol yor ni 2-3 jiliin daraa bugd uushig ni ustah baih. Ger horoolliin yandangaas heden huvi ni, mashinaas heden huvi ni gedeg too ch baidag l baih ldaa. Gehdee ter ni buduun toim todii gedegt ergelzehgui bna. Lav l minii medeheer zovhon shataaj baigaa nuurs, benzinees ni tootsoolson too l baidag yum bilee. Ter gargasan toonii tuhaid, bi mergejliin gegdeed baigaa hunees daraah asuultiig asuuj baisan udaatai. "Ger horoololiin zarim utaa bol hot luu orj irehgui gadagshaa hiisj baigaa. Mashinii utaa bol golduu hotod uldene. Salhinii chiglel ene ter geed olon yumiiig tootsohguigeer gargasan ene too chini her zereg relevant yum dee?" Mani hun bol hariulj chadahgui, teges inges geed oor tiishee yariag chigluuleed ongorch baisan. Getel ter hun maani tosol ene ter deer ajillasan, utaanii taliin Mongoliin barag hamgiin tom hun ni gegdeed baisan baihaa. Tegeheer l butehgui.

Utaatai temtseh hotolboroor bol ahiad 10 garui jil ingej hort hiigeer UB chuud amisgalah yum gene. Tegseer baital uuushig ni ustaad bugd uheh bailgui. Yostoi nogoo buhiin doodohiig harj uneg turj uhne gedeg shig. Ene asuudaltai sain temtsehgui bol buh Mongolchuud maani udaan uilchilgetei uhliin hor odor bolgono idej baigaaatai yalgaagui. Eruul mend gedeg yunaas ch chuhal gedeg deer neg ih margah hun baihgui biz. Tegeheer utaag bagasgah ni heden terbum dollaraar ch hemjigdehgui chuhal bolood bna. Minii bodloor bol daraah arga hemjeeg yaaraltai avah heregtei.

1.Hamgiin gol ni agaariin bohirdoliin asuudlliig sudaldag institute baiguulya. Ulsaas neleen ih mongo gargaj ogood ajilchidad ni sain tsalin ogood hort agaariin garal, salhinii chiglel haashaa zooj bna, tarhats zergiig sain sudlag heregtei. Teriig bodoltsood nariivchilj togtoogood tuun deer undesleed mashintai temtseh ni zovuu. Gadaadaas erdemted avchiraad hural zovlolgoon zohiogood, busad ulsiin turshlagiig sudlaad geh met uil ajillagaa yavuulah ni chuhal. Bas dulaan hemneh arga, utaagui tulsh zergiig sain sudlah. Tegelgui iim zuuh tulsh hemnene geed baahan uildverledeg tegtel ter ni tegeed tulsh hemneh ch sain haldaggui baih jisheetei. Yamar nuurs, nuntag ni buhel ni uu, Nalaih iin h uu, Shariin Goliin hi nuu, baga utaa yalgaruulj baina ve gedgiig togtoogood tiim nuursend ni tataas ogch hyamdaar zaruulah geh met. Todorhoi sudalgaa tootsoonii undsen deer arga hemjee avahgui bol neg tsetsen darga urid shono ni zuudend orson sanaagaa heregjuuleh geed dairaad bol butehgui.

(Daraagiin sanaluud bol zugeer l minii tolgoid orson esvel yor ni humuus yaridag sanaluud l daa. )

2. Olon jil bolson mashinuudiig hodolgoond oroltsuulahiig bagasgah heregtei. Jishee ni ehleed 15 jil hagas jiliin daraa 14 jil bolson ahiad hagas jiliin daraa 13 jil bolson geh meteer ue shattaigaar horigloh heregtei. Gehdee shuud horiglolguigeer,
tolbortoi bolgood ter mongiig Agaariin bohirdoltoi temtseh sand tovloruuloh.

3. Ger horoololiig unegui shonii tsahilgaanaar hangaya. Tsagaar hemjdeg tooluuruudiig unegui hangaad, shono nuurs shataalgui tsahilgaanaar dulaatsaj honodog bolvol utaa ers buurna. Shonii tsahilgaaniig Orosoos hussen hemjeegeer hudaldaj avch bolno, Mongoldoo ch iluudeed baidag shuudee.

4. Taxi, micro zereg hodolgoond hamgiin idevhtei oroltsdog mashinuudiin emission hyanaltiig ni hatuu bolgoh.

5. Hotiin tobiin hoid , 3 surguuliin ter haviin ger horoololiig nuulgye.
Ingehdee ulsaas dulaanii shugamiig unegui tataad oron suutsnii horoolol barihiig ni huviin company uudad ni daatgaya. Ted nar ailuudaas hashaanii gazriig ni hudaldaj avaad baishin barina biz. M0n toviin dulaantai holbootoi oron suuts barih zorilgoor ailiin hashaag hudaldaj avahad jishee ni 1 metr kvadrat gazart ulsaas 500 myangan togrogiin demjleg uzuuleh ch yumuu.

Medeej ene ni zovhon minii bodol bogood, minii bodol hamgiin zov gej bi helehgui. Hamgiin gol ni suirel dohoj baina gedgiig oilgood tun hurdatstai arga hemjeenuud avah heregtei bolovuu.

Soviet Superman

Superman: Red Son is a comic book published by DC Comics that was released under their Elseworlds imprint in April, 2003. Author Mark Millar created the comic with the premise "what if Superman had been raised in the Soviet Union?" In Red Son, Superman's rocket ship lands on a Ukrainian collective farm rather than in Kansas. (Maybe his sensors may got the infamous prpaganda "иди товарищ к нам в колхоз / Come to us comrade, to the collective farm") Instead of fighting for "... truth, justice, and the American Way," Superman is described in Soviet propaganda broadcasts "... as the Champion of the common worker who fights a never-ending battle for Stalin, socialism, and the international expansion of the Warsaw Pact." (Yeah..they would need a superman for this phenomenal cause) His "secret identity" (i.e. the name his adoptive parents gave him) is a state secret.







and here is some addition from Dinc Arslan: What would Superman become if he landed in Ukrainian SSR?

-He would play soccer in Kiev State University Soccer Team instead of Kansas University Football Team.
-He would work in Pravda newspaper instead of Daily Planet
-His name would be Kyrill Konstantinov instead of Clark Kent
-He would be vulnerable to capitalist propaganda instead of kryptonite
-He would build his Fortress of Solitude in Siberia and be forced to share it with 250 other communist superheroes.
-He would only be permitted fly in between the frontiers of USSR. (The red army would build the frontiers with kryptonite to hold him inside...you'd never know what those evil capitalists do to our jewel of socialism)
-He would work on saturdays as a welder in Dnepropetovsk Steel Factories (with his x-ray vision)
-He would help the Soviet Space program by carrying soviet cosmonauts to moon and back.
-He would be a member of the State Union of Soviet Socialist Superheroes. (the others would be Supertadjik, The Incredible Azeri, Fantastic Kazakhs, The X-arMENians...etc) and he would work overtime for his annual award to a holiday resort in a Black Sea beach.( Note: All socialist superheroes would have the same superpowers and wear the same costume...weird)

Hogjliin San

Mongol ulsiin hogjuuloh san gej baidag bololtoi. Neleen ih mongo ch tovlorood baigaa bololtoi. Getel teriig yyaj manage hiih ve gedeg tal deer yamar ch discussion baihgui baigaa ni gaihaltai. Medeej Sangiin yaam, Mongol bank havitsaa discussion baigaa l bhldaa. Gehdee public discussion ch heregtei bh. Jishee ni Mongol ruu ter mongiig oruulj irehuu, irehgui yu? Oruulj irvel, Dutch desease iin asuudal uusne. Bas resource price iin une unasan nohtsold togtvorgui baidal uusne. Gehdee zohih hemjeegeer oruulj irj horongo oruulalt hiih heregtei gedeg ni oilgomjtoi. Her hemjeeg oruulj ireh ve? gedeg asuudliig nuhatstai sudlah yostoi bolovuu. Oruulj ireegui hesgiig ni olon ulsiin capital market deer management hiij taarne. Tegehed Active management hiih uu,
passive management hiihuu geed l. Passive management hiigeed zovhon AAA zeregleltei bond hudaldaj avba, huunii ashig bagatai, gehdee riskgui. Oros bol passive management hiij baigaa. Active management hiivel yanz yanziin huvitsaa, bond avaad l zarim ni une ni unana zarim ni une ni osno niitdee yu boloh ni buu med mayagiin. Jishee ni
Harvard geh met US iin ih surguuliud mon Singapore Norway iim arga heregledeg. Oros ch gesen active management hiiye gesen humuus olshrood baigaa bololtoi. Orosiin huvid active management hiih geheer garuud (Oros Mongoloos havigui iluu corrupt. Bid darga naraa avilgald idegdsen gej haraagaad baidag, hoorhiiis Orosiin darga nariin hajuud ariun gegeen l gesen ug.) ni dundaas zavhruulaad idchih geed hetsuu bolohoor zoriud passive management hiij baigaa baih. Mongol iin tov banknii nootsiig uul ni passive management hiih yostoi. Getel Chuluunbat yoronhiilogch dundaas zavhruulj Orosiin bank ene tereeer operation hiij baigaad heden saya nogoon aldah dohson. Yagaad Orosiin bankand hadgaluulsan yum be geheer huu ihtei baisan gej avsan baisan. Dundaas ni ooroo ideh gesen ni barag l oilgomjtoi bizdee. Huuli baigaad baihad ingej baigaa humuus active management hii geed zovshoorchih yum bol ballaj tavih biz. Uuniig toirj garah neg arga bii. Ner hundtei gadaad Manager uud holsolj avaad ashgiin heden huviig ogno geed geree baiguulchih heregtei.
Harvard bol ingedeg yum.

Research in progress

1. Jump bidding in English auctions.
2. Search in endogenous product design model.
3. Information transmission in repeated auctions.
4. Test scores and future income.
5. Evolutionary Bayesian outcome.

Thomas Mayne Reid

Huuhed baihdaa amtarhan unshdag bsan Main Rid iin tuhai sayahan neg gazar sanamsargui harlaa. Mongolchuud ene hunii "Otseola baatar", "Zorigt Anchin Busgui"
geh met zohioluudad tun durtai baisan. Sonirholtoi ni ene hun Amerik, Ireland daa ali hediin martagdsan, zohioluud ni ch hevlegddeggui bololtoi. Harin Eastern Europe, Russia Mongol d l humuus amtarhan unshdag (at least sayahan boltol, odoo ch uran zohioliin nom unshdag hun ch bhgui bolson shdee) heveeree bololtoi. Jinhenne ner ni Thomas Mayne Reid gej bichdeg yum bna. Ene hun yasnii zohiolch bsan bololtoi. Ter uedee best seller bolood bayajsan bolovch mongoo hamaagui ureed dampuursan gne.

Quote of the day

"Everything reminds Milton (Friedman) of the money supply. Well, everything reminds me of sex, but I keep it out of the paper."
by Robert Solow (economist, Nobel prize winner)

Netflix prize: One million bucks.

There is an announcement of the Netflix Prize competition, which is to design a movie recommender system. This competition draws a lot of attention, for example, NYTimes has an article on the story. Netflix provides you with a sample of its database of movie ratings by users. In order to win the prize, you have to come up with a new algorithm that beats their in-house approach by at least 10%. If you win, they'll pay out a cool million bucks.

Netflix gej online video rental hiideg company bdag yum. Neg goyo tal ni tun objective eer dugnegdeh yum bna. Prediction hiiged ter niih ni dundaj kvadratlag hazailt ch gedeg biluu ter ni hamgiin baga bh yum bol turuulne gesen ug. Mongoliin Applied math, statistics hiideg zaluuchuud oroltsvol neleen yum surah bizdee. Bi 20-25 nastai bogood Mongold bsan bol 1 jil nudeed uzmeer l bna. Turuulne gedeg ni barag hudlaa ch oroltsoh yavtsdaa ih yum surna. Zugeer nom unshasnaas gar hol, tolgoi tarhia hodolgovol l yum surdag shuude. 2011 on hurtel yavagdah bogood, jil bolgon sain progress hiisen bagt 50,000 iig ogno gne. Teriig ni bol avah bolomj bgaa ch yum biluu. Harin 2011 on oirtohoor 1 saya iig avah gesen garuud orj ireed orsoldoon ihtei boloh bh. Tiim tul ene onii 50,000 ni hamgiin avahad amarhan bh. Amarhan ch gej Oros, zuun Europe, China (USA giin garuud bol endee ajil hiigeed zondoo mongo oloh bolhoor neg ih tsag huchee zartsuulahgui bhl daa)aas mundag garuud zondoo oroltsoj bgaa bolhoor hetsuu l dee. Odoogiin baidlaar terguulj yavaa ni heden Ungar garuud bna.
Yor ni odoo Applied Math yor ni hamgiin erelttei mergejil bolood bna daa.
Odoo ch buh yumand math heregledeg bolchihson bolohoor.

すごい発想

これはすごい発想だ。
"Among the plans cooked up (by CIA) in the early 1950s was one (never carried out) to parachute large-size condoms marked medium into Soviet-bloc countries, to convince the local women of the virility of American males."
"Newsweek誌”より

原文はこちら。

Books

"Holy War: The Crusades and Their Impact on Today's World " by Karen Armstrong.
Little bit biased toward Islam. But given that media is biased against Islam, that is not necesarily bad thing.

"Passions within Reason" by Robert Frank.
Basic message is that human emotion is a commitment tool. Surprisingly, it was quite original idea in 19988 when he wrote this book. Nowadays some evolutionary economists are trying to formalize this idea.

"Reading Lolita in Teheran" by Azar Nafisi.
The author is a Hopkins professor.

Kiss and Sell: Writing for Advertising.
BBC documentary "Space race"

Christmas topic

Scrooge: Dickens iin "A Christmas Carol" deer gardag tun haramch nohor

In defense of Scrooge

The Effect of Schooling and Ability onAchievement Test Scores by Hansen, Heckman.

Our model of test scores is based on an extension of the factor analysis model used in psychometrics(see e.g., Lord and Novick, 1968). Test score T (s) is a manifestation of latent ability f mediated byschooling:
T (s) = μ(s) + λ(s)f + ε(s)

Korean Judiciary: Extramarital Affair

Solongos bas hogjiltoi oron yumaa. Furin illegal aar barahgui criminal offence ch geh shig.
Barigdaad evguidvell shorond oroh ch bolomjtoi gne. Medeej onoliin l huvid bh ldaa, yag amidral deer shorond hiideggui biz dee (tegj naidya). Bas adihan Chon (Kim gesen tugeemel ovog bol dotroo bas huvaagddag bololtoi) ovogtoi bol gerlej bolohgui gne. Sonna. Tsus oirtono gej aidag yum bhdaa. Mongoloor bol barag l adilhan Borjigon ovogtoi bol hoorondoo suuj bolohgui gsen shig yum boloh ni. getel arabiin ornuud dandaa l cousin taigaa gerlej baih yum.

受験生の母と浮気した男に賠償命令 　受験生の母と浮気をした男に、受験生に対し賠償せよという判決が下された。 　ソウル西部地裁民事の堅種哲（キョン・ジョンチョル）判事は12日、チョン某氏（46）が妻の愛人パク某氏を相手取り「娘が浪人することになったのは、快楽のために受験生の母を誘惑した朴氏の不法行為のためであるため、5000万ウォン（631万円）を賠償せよ」として起こした訴訟で原告に勝訴判決を下した。 　チョン氏の訴状によると、チョン氏の長女はパク氏が母の携帯電話に送ったメールを読んで母の浮気に気付き、修学能力試験を前に、母親と言い争いをすることが多くなった。特に長女は母とパク氏が会っていたモーテルにまで行き、ドアをたたいて抗議し、試験の後の2005年12月にはビアホールで母とパク氏の公開的な愛情表現も目撃した。 　裁判部は被告が訴状を受け取ってから1カ月がたったにもかかわらず返答がなかったため、これを自白したものと見なし、「パク氏が妻を誘惑し、長女を浪人させ、次女も高校3年という受験の時期に勉強ができずにいる」という原告の訴状を認めた。 朝鮮日報／朝鮮日報JNS http://news.livedoor.com/webapp/journal/cid__2850762/detail?rd

Mankiw and Prescott

In his blog, Mankiw says:

In today's Wall Street Journal, economist Ed
Prescott (subscription required) writes about five macroeconomic myths.
This
passage left me scratching my head:

Myth No. 5: Government debt is a burden
on our grandchildren.
There's no
better way to get people worked up about
something than
to
call on their
sympathies for their beloved grandkids. The last
thing
that I want to do is
to burden my own grandchildren with the
sins of
profligacy. But we should
stop feeling guilty -- at least about
government debt
-- because we are in
better shape than conventional
wisdom suggests.
Theory
and practice tell
us that the optimal
amount
of public debt that maximizes the
welfare of new
generations
of entrants
into the workforce is two times gross
national
income,
or GDP. This
assumes 1% population growth, 2% productivity
growth,
4% real after-tax
return on investments, and that people work to age 63
and
live to age
85. Currently, privately held public debt is about
0.3 times
GDP, and if we
include our Social Security obligations, it is
1.6 times GDP.
In
either
case, we could argue that we have too
little debt.
What's
going on
here? There are not enough productive
assets -- tangible and
intangible
assets
alike -- to meet the
investment needs of our forthcoming
retirees. The problem
is that the
rate of return on investment --
creating
more productive assets --
decreases as the stock of these
assets increases.
An excessive stock
of these
productive assets leads to
inefficiencies.
Total savings by
everyone is
equal to the sum of
productive assets and
government
debt, and if there is an
imbalance in
this equation it does not mean we have too little or too many
productive assets. The fix comes from
getting the proper amount of government
debt. When people did not enjoy long retirements and population growth was rapid, the optimal amount of government debt was zero. However, the world has changed, and we in fact require some government debt if we care about our grandchildren and their grandchildren. If we should worry about our grandchildren, we shouldn't about the amount of debt we are leaving them. We may even have to increase that debt a bit to ensure that we are adequately prepared
for our own retirements.

Usually, even when I disagree with a fellow economist, I
can understand his point of view. But I am puzzled about this passage. Ed must have some model in mind, but I am not sure what it is. To some degree, it sounds like Ed is worried that the U.S. economy might accumulate more capital than what Ned Phelps called the "Golden Rule" level. As I discuss in my intermediate macroeconomics textbook, Phelps used a Solow growth model to show that an economy can potentially save beyond the point that maximizes steady-state consumption. Peter Diamond subsequently showed that such excessive saving can arise even when overlapping generations of consumers make individually optimal saving decisions. This situation is sometimes called "dynamic inefficiency." When an economy is dynamically inefficient, government debt can have the virtue of depressing the capital stock toward its optimal level.

Ochigdor Wall St Journal iig unshaad, Prescott iin ene hesgiig sain oilgoogui. Mankiw iin tailbariig unshaad l Prescott "dynamic inefficiency" iig heleh gsen yum bolovu gj oilgoloo. Harin busad 4 myth iig bol ihenh ediin zasagch sanal negdeh bh.

Quote of the dayi

"At a time like this, Father, one tries not to make new enemies."
by Machiavelli (after thrice refusing the entreaties of a priest to repent his sins and renounce Satan)

One cannot help but admire Machiavelli!!!

Books recently read

1. "Black rednecks and white liberals" by Sowell
Sowell is great. He coolly argues but one can feel his passion.
2. "The Company: A Short History of a Revolutionary Idea" by John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge
A decent book. But I expected to read more about the history of company and its role in economic development.

Movies

Wanna watch these movies.
1. Legally Blonde
2. Vanity Fair
3. "Constant Gardener"
4. "Junebug"
5. "Capote"